Analysis of trend and determinant factors of imported soybean in the period of 2003-2022

Irfan Zikri, Safrida Safrida, Elly Susanti, Risty Angelia Putri


The import of soybean is still a necessity for the Indonesian government to meet the gap between domestic demand and supply.  This paper aims to analyze the trends of soybean import and its contributing factors in Indonesia.  The study employs a descriptive analysis by using secondary data in the form of time series from 2003-2017.  Data analysis uses trends analysis and single equation model with Ordinary Least Square method.  The main finding shows the trends of soybean production are to follow a quadratic pattern, tends to decrease with an average 6.12% per year, while demand and import linearly tend to increase respectively with an average 3.30% and 3.03% per year in 2018-2022.  The projection of the production will increase 27,60% in 2018 from the previous year and will gradually continue to decline to 0.4 million tons in 2022. Meanwhile, domestic demand projects 3,3 million tons in 2018 will increase to 3.7 million tons, and import volume is 2.5 million tons in 2018 and will increase to 3.0 million tons by 2022.  The main factors contributing to the import partially are domestic production and demands and follow by the exchange rate, the national and international prices of soybeans.  Statistically shows the increasing every ton of production will affect to decrease 1,02 tons of import volume, and the increasing every ton of demand will increase 0.99 tons of import volume.  Thus, the import policy is still unable to stimulate domestic production to fulfill the increasing domestic demand.


Econometric model; Import volume; Soybean production; Supply and demand; Trend analysis

Full Text:



Adetama, D.S. (2011) ‘Analisis Permintaan Kedelai di Indonesia Periode 1978-2008 (Analysis of Soybean Demand in Indonesia 1978-2008)’, [Thesis], Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta [In Indonesian]

Aimon, H., and Satrianto, A. (2014) ‘Prospek konsumsi dan impor kedelai di indonesia tahun 2015-2020 (soybean consumption and import prospects in Indonesia 2015-2020)’, Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi, 3(5), pp 9-23 [In Indonesian]

Aldillah, R. (2015) ‘Proyeksi produksi dan konsumsi kedelai indonesia (Projection of Indonesian soybean production and consumption)’, Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 8(1), pp 9-23 [In Indonesian]

Atmaja, L.S. (1997) ‘Memahami Statistika Bisnis (Understanding Business Statistics)’. Andi Offset, Yogyakarta [In Indonesian]

BPS (2017) “Manufactoring Industrial Statistics’, Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta

Budhi, G.S., and Aminah, M. (2010) ‘Swasembada Kedelai: Antara Harapan dan Kenyataan (Soy Self-Sufficiency: Between Hope and Reality)’, Forum Penelitian Agro Ekonomi, 28(1), pp 55-68 [In Indonesian]

FAO (2018) FAO STAT, available from, accessed May 12, 2019

GAIN (2019) Indonesia Oilseeds and Products Annual Report 2019, Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN), USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, available from accessed June 1, 2019

Ministry of Agriculture Republic of Indonesia (2017) ‘Outlook Tanaman Pangan dan Hortikultura 2017 (Food Crops and Horticulture Outlook 2017)’, Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian Sekretariat Jenderal Kementerian Pertanian Republik Indonesia, Jakarta [In Indonesian]

Ministry of Trade Republic of Indonesia (2014) Laporan Outlook Pangan Kedelai 2015-2019 (Soybean Food Outlook Report 2015-2019)’, Pusat Kebijakan Perdagangan Dalam Negeri, Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan, Kementerian Perdagangan Republik Indonesia, Jakarta [In Indonesian]

Ministry of Trade Republic of Indonesia (2018) ‘Analisis Perkembangan Harga Bahan Pangan Pokok di Pasar Domestik dan Internasional Desember 2018’, Pusat Pengkajian Perdagangan Dalam Negeri, Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan, Kementerian Perdagangan Republik Indonesia, Jakarta. [In Indonesian]

Nainggolan, K. (2008) ‘Ketahanan dan stabilitas pasokan, permintaan dan harga komoditas pangan (Security and stability of supply, demand and prices of food commodities)’, Jurnal Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian, 6(2), pp 114-139 [In Indonesian]

Ningrum, I.H., Irianto, H., and Riptanti, E.W (2018) ‘Analysis of soybean production and import trends and its import factors in Indonesia’, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 142(1), pp. 1-8

Nuhung, I.A. (2013) ‘Kedelai dan politik pangan (soybeans and food politics)’, Forum Penelitian Agro Ekonomi, 31(2), pp. 123-135 [In Indonesian]

Sudaryanto, T., and Swastika, D.K. (2007) ‘Ekonomi kedelai di Indonesia (Economic soybean in Indonesia) in Sumarno, Suyamto, Widjono, A., Hermanto, and Kasim, H. (eds.) Kedelai: Teknik Produksi dan Pengembangan. Puslitbang Tanaman Pangan: Bogor, pp. 1-27 [In Indonesian]

Tastra, I.K., Ginting, E., and Fatah, G.S.A. (2012) ‘Menuju swasembada kedelai melalui penerapan kebijakan yang sinergis (Towards soy self-sufficiency through synergistic application of policies)’, Iptek Tanaman Pangan, 7(1), pp 47–57 [In Indonesian]

Zakaria, A.K. (2010) Program pengembangan agribisnis kedelai dalam peningkatan produksi dan pendapatan petani (Soybean agribusiness development program in increasing farmers production and income)’, Jurnal Litbang Pertanian, 29(4), pp 147-153 [In Indonesian]

Zakiah (2012) ‘Preferensi dan permintaan kedelai pada industri dan implikasinya terhadap manajemen usaha tani (Soybean preference and demand in the industry and its implications on farm business management)’, Jurnal Mimbar, 28(1), pp 77-84 [In Indonesian]



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2020 Irfan Zikri, Safrida, Elly Susanti, Risty Angelia Putri

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.